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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Using Opinion Polls to Evaluate Kenyan Politics, March 2004-January 2005
Authors:Branch, DanielISNI
Cheeseman, NicISNI
Periodical:African Affairs: The Journal of the Royal African Society
Geographic term:Kenya
Subjects:opinion polls
National Rainbow Coalition
Politics and Government
Literature, Mass Media and the Press
External link:https://www.jstor.org/stable/3518447
Abstract:This briefing demonstrates the potential worth of poll data on the basis of the case of Kenya. In January 2005, Kenya's first post-Moi government had apparently reached a nadir, with outbreaks of violence bearing a resemblance to similar events that took place under KANU control in the 1990s. Based on conventional sources of political analysis, the positions of the ruling National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and President Kibaki appear weak. Yet the use of quarterly opinion poll data for the period March 2004 - January 2005 suggests a very different political map of the country. A decline in public optimism does seem to have led to a fall in satisfaction with government performance in key areas, but there is little indication that this has had any impact on voter intentions. Both NARC and Kibaki have retained consistently strong public support over the period. Consequently, reports concerning Kibaki and NARC's demise have been exaggerated; indeed, Kibaki's personal popularity increased in the quarter to January 2005. Notes, ref. [ASC Leiden abstract]