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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Ten years of democratic local government elections in South Africa: is the tide turning?
Author:Russon, R.D.
Year:2011
Periodical:Journal of African Elections (ISSN 1609-4700)
Volume:10
Issue:1
Pages:74-98
Language:English
Geographic term:South Africa
Subjects:elections
voting
African National Congress (South Africa)
Abstract:Since the 2006 local elections in South Africa the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has lost a total of 48 wards in by-elections and won only 15. This is a complete reversal of the party's performance between 2000 and 2006, when it lost only five wards and won 47. Does this signify a change in South African voting patterns? The present analysis is based on election data provided by the Electoral Commission of South Africa on its website. It covers a ten-year period from 2000 to 2010 and includes results of the 2011 local elections as well as referring to the national elections of 1994 and 1999 to make a comparison. The analysis shows the dominance of the ANC since the first democratic elections in South Africa in 1994, which it won and continued to increase its voter support, peaking in 2004 with a 69.69 percent majority. Similarly, in local elections the ANC dominated in 2000 and 2006. The 2011 local elections show a slightly different picture. By-elections are also discussed, with data demonstrating a similar trend to that in the national and local elections. The period fom 1994 to 2006 was a period of growth for the ANC and the period 2007 to 2010 was a period of decline, thus demonstrating a Bell Curve pattern. Extrapolating from the trends outlined in the article, the author concludes that the 2014 elections will be highly contested and will return results different from those experienced in the past, with all parties vying for the ANC vote. Bibliogr., notes, sum. [Journal abstract]
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