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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Determinants of election outcomes: new evidence from Africa
Authors:Hausken, KjellISNI
Ncube, MthuliISNI
Year:2014
Periodical:African Development Review (ISSN 1467-8268)
Volume:26
Issue:4
Pages:610-630
Language:English
Geographic term:Africa
Subject:elections
External link:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2014.12117.x
Abstract:Any election may result in six possible situations. The incumbent or challenger may win according to the official results. If the incumbent wins, he may remain in power, or a standoff or coalition may ensue. In contrast, if the challenger wins, he may become the new incumbent, or a standoff or coalition may ensue. Using a database of all presidential and legislative elections in Africa over the period 1960-2010, the authors found the following distribution of election outcomes: the incumbent wins with no contestation 63.9 per cent, coalition 6.4 per cent, and standoff 1.2 per cent. The incumbent loses and accepts defeat 15.9 per cent, coalition 12.3 per cent, and standoff 0.3 per cent. The authors have then tested empirically 22 hypotheses on the determinants of election outcomes in Africa using a discrete-choice multinomial logit model. They study the impact of the shape of the economy, the provision of public goods, education, social diversity, number of years in power of the incumbent, whether the incumbent is a military official or not, the strength of the opposition, natural resource endowment, colonial origins of the country, and whether the election is presidential or legislative. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]
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