The impact of political instability on inflation volatility in Africa

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Periodical article

Title:	The impact of political instability on inflation volatility in Africa
Author:	Barugahara, Florence
Year:	2015
Periodical:	South African Journal of Economics (ISSN 0038-2280)
Volume:	83
Issue:	1
Pages:	56-73
Language:	English
Geographic term:	Africa
Subjects:	political stability inflation economic models
External link:	https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12046
Abstract:	This paper investigates whether political instability leads to volatile inflation using a panel of 49 African countries. The study uses novel measures of political instability, particularly the state failure index and state fragility index. In the field of political instability and inflation volatility, this is the first study to measure inflation volatility as the conditional variance of inflation estimated from GARCH (1, 1) model. Adopting the system-generalized method of moments estimator for linear dynamic panel models for the sample period 1985-2009, the study documents a positive statistically significant effect of political instability on inflation volatility. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]